A SHOCK RESPONSE MODEL IN GROWING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
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The present article identified what would be the impacts on the productive quantity of five large agricultural segments, if there was an increase in GHG emissions in Brazil. Methodologically, a Structural Vector Auto Regression Model was structured and operated with data between the years 1970 and 2018. The following information was used: the level of emissions produced by the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, the quantity of sugarcane, corn and coffee produced, as well as the cattle and swine breeding stock. In general, the results obtained reveal the importance of controlling the level of emissions generated, as there was a reduction in the production of all studied segments. Thus, considering emissions from AFOLU, it is concluded that all sectors chosen for the study will suffer losses in production if there is no control over future emissions, indicating the need for pro-environmental public policies for the agricultural sectors.
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